Observing the prevalence of pebrine disease in silkworms and climate change: a case study in South Sulawesi, Indonesia

Abstract

Abstract A tropical country like Indonesia is highly susceptible to fluctuations in daily, monthly, and decadal climate factors. The gradual or sudden accumulation of climate change can affect all living creatures, including silkworms and their pathogens. This research investigates the relationship between the prevalence of pebrine disease and climate factors, climate anomalies, and climate change. Pebrine disease data is obtained from the seed certification documents of the seed producer and verified by the seed certification agency. Climate components, including temperature, humidity, and rainfall, were acquired from satellite data records and verified at local climatology stations. The research results indicate that fluctuations in the prevalence of pebrine disease correlate with climate factors such as rainfall, temperature, and humidity. The epidemic may occur if, in the initial conditions, extended and immediate droughts alternate with high intensity and frequency of rains or if the events of El Nino precede the phenomenon of La Nina. Implications for insect conservation The more worrying impact of climate change on the high and long-lasting prevalence of pebrine disease is the extinction of silkworm strains that are not resilient to climate change. Monitoring climate factors is crucial for predicting the likelihood of pebrine disease outbreaks and implementing preventive measures.