Abstract
The impacts of land use change and climate change on biodiversity are significant, leading to substantial range contractions for many species globally. This effect is particularly pronounced in endemic species like the four-horned antelope (FHA), native to the Indian subcontinent. These species are vulnerable due to their low population densities and limited dispersal abilities.To understand the future habitat suitability for the FHA, we employed an ensemble modeling framework. This approach integrated landscape composition and climatic variables to predict current and future habitat changes. The FHA shows a preference for hot, dry climates and is mainly found in areas with extensive forest and grassland coverage. They avoid regions with large diurnal temperature variations. Our study revealed contrasting outcomes under different future scenarios. Under climate-only change projections, the FHA's habitat is expected to expand, with minimal range contractions across all scenarios. However, under land use change and combined scenarios, a significant decline in suitable habitats was observed. By the 2050s, climate-only models predict an 11.3% and 7.8% increase in FHA habitat under low (SSP 2.6) and high (SSP 8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. In stark contrast, land use change models forecast a 51.2% and 54.5% reduction in suitable habitats under low (SSP 126) and high (SSP 585) development scenarios, respectively. These findings highlight the critical impact of land use change on FHA habitat loss, emphasizing the need for comprehensive conservation strategies. Our study provides valuable insights into habitat suitability factors for the FHA, which are crucial for conservation and land-use management. The results underscore the urgency of implementing measures to mitigate habitat loss due to land use changes, as they pose a more immediate and substantial threat to the FHA's survival. Therefore, protecting and restoring forest and grassland areas is vital for conserving this species across its range.