Long-term evolution and driving mechanisms of the Baiyangdian wetland based on land cover frequency characteristics

Abstract

Abstract For sustainable conservation and management of wetlands, it is essential to quantify evolution progress and driving mechanisms of wetlands. This study examined Baiyangdian Wetland as a research area, and Landsat images and statistical yearbooks were used as data sources. Land cover type-dominant zones were innovatively defined based on spatial characteristics of land cover frequency. A transfer matrix and random forest were used to analyze the evolution process and driving mechanism of typical wetlands in the North China Plain. The conclusions were: (1) There was significant spatial differentiation of land cover frequency characteristics in the Baiyangdian wetland, with the cultivated land-dominated zone, the aquatic vegetation-dominated zone, and the water body-dominated zone being the three core zones of wetland ecosystem evolution. (2) There was a frequent and significant change in the land cover of the Baiyangdian wetland due to extreme climatic conditions. Between 1987 and 2017, the built-up land area and the water body area increased by 4.62 km2 and 16.17 km2, respectively, while the aquatic vegetation area decreased by 20.70 km2. (3) The driving mechanisms of ecosystem evolution in the Baiyangdian wetland were influenced significantly by space, time, and land use types. Specifically, on a spatial scale, social factors were the predominant factors contributing to changes in water body and cultivated land in the cultivated land-dominant zone and the aquatic vegetation-dominant zone. In contrast, natural factors were the dominant factors leading to changes in aquatic vegetation. There was a greater contribution from social factors to the driving mechanism of changes in the water body, aquatic vegetation, and cultivated land in the water body-dominant zone than from natural factors. On a temporal scale, it was primarily influenced by natural factors in the early stages and socio-economic factors in the late stages, with the year 2002 serving as a turning point. The scale of land use types can be seen primarily in the differences among the agricultural lands, aquatic vegetation, and water body. In particular, the Secondary Industry Out Value (SIOV) was highly sensitive to changes in the cultivated area. In addition, cumulative evaporation (EC) has been identified as the main factor responsible for the evolution of aquatic vegetation, which is closely related to the changes in water body.