Structural Evolution and Correlation Characteristics of Carbon Emissions in China's Industrial Sector

Abstract

The deterioration of the global environment and the intensification of the greenhouse effect are increasingly severe issues, making the pursuit of a green and sustainable development path, characterized by low carbon emissions, the primary direction for global economic progress. A thorough understanding of the dynamic changes in the structure of industrial carbon emissions and the relationships between them is crucial for the strategic planning of industries and the effective development of energy conservation and emission reduction policies. This paper constructs a comparable input-output industry table for China and employs an input-output model combined with a complex network analysis method to examine the trends, correlation characteristics, and evolutionary patterns of carbon emissions across various industrial sectors in China. Notably, the metal smelting and rolling processing, construction, and chemical industries exhibit the highest carbon emissions, while the non-metallic mineral products industry and the metal smelting and rolling processing industry show the highest direct carbon emission intensity. Additionally, the financial products industry and the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry have significant indirect carbon emission intensity. The network characteristics of associated carbon emissions reveal that the industrial carbon emissions network exhibits small-world properties with closely linked nodes. Metal smelting and the chemical industry hold central positions in the carbon emissions network, marking them as critical sectors for energy conservation and emissions reduction. The optimal emissions path analysis indicates that the oil processing and electric power production industries are key to stable emissions, highlighting the need for focused efforts on promoting energy conservation and emissions reduction.