A time-series analysis of morbidity and mortality of viral hepatitis in Venezuela, 1990–2016

Abstract

Abstract Background Viral hepatitis (VH) is a leading contributor to morbidity and mortality worldwide, constituting a public health problem associated with the level of human development. In recent years, Venezuela has experienced a political, social, and economic crisis and has been impacted by natural disasters that have led to the deterioration of sanitary and health infrastructures modifying the determinants of VH. Despite epidemiological studies conducted in specific regions of the country or in particular populations, the national epidemiological behaviour of VH remains unclear. Methods This is a time series study involving records of morbidity and mortality by HV in Venezuela reported during the period from 1990 to 2016. The Venezuelan population was taken as the denominator of the morbidity and mortality rates, according to the Venezuelan National Institute of Statistics and the 2016 population projections from the latest census published on the website of the responsible Venezuelan agency. Results During the study period, 630,502 cases and 4,679 deaths from VH in Venezuela were analysed. Most of the cases (n = 457,278; 72.6%) were classified as unspecific VH (UVH). The deaths were mainly attributed to VHB (n = 1,532; 32.7%), UVH (n = 1,287; 27.5%), and sequelae of VH (n = 977; 20.8%). The mean rates of cases and deaths from VH in the country were 95 ± 40.4 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and 0.7 ± 0.1 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively, showing a large dispersion that is evident from the calculation of the coefficients of variation. We document a strong correlation between UVH and VHA cases (0.77, p < 0.01). VHB mortality rate was very strongly correlated with sequelae of VH (–0.9, p < 0.01). Conclusions VH is a major burden of morbidity and mortality in Venezuela with an endemic-epidemic trend and an intermediate prevalence for VHA, VHB, and VHC. Epidemiological information is not published in a timely manner and diagnostic tests are insufficient in primary health services. There is an urgent need to resume epidemiological surveillance of VH and to optimise the classification system for a better understanding of UVH cases and deaths due to sequelae of VHB and VHC.