Conservation implications of mapping the potential distribution of an Ethiopian endemic versatile medicinal plant, Echinops kebericho Mesfin.

Abstract

Abstract Herbal medicines have served as remedies for both human and livestock ailments for ages. This is continued to be so in developing countries such as Ethiopia where about 80% of the population are still dependent on traditional medicines. However, immense anthropogenic pressure is posing a threat on these invaluable resources. Echinops kebericho is a narrow range multipurpose medicinal plant confined to Ethiopia and known for its efficacy to cure several disease such as epilepsy, epistaxis and atrophy. Extracts from E. kebercho has antibacterial and anti-leshmanial activities as well as several agricultural and veterinary applications. Currently, intense land use and overharvesting for traditional medicine have resulted in its narrow distributions and E. kebercho is among the medicinal plants of Ethiopia with a decreasing population trend. Here we aim to map its potential distribution, which is key to guide conservation efforts and sustainable use. We modeled the potential distribution of this multipurpose medicinal plant using maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) employing twenty-one predictor variables by calibrating the model at two complexity levels and replicating each model 10 times using a cross validation technique. We projected the models into the whole of Ethiopia and produced binary presence-absence maps by splitting the average map from both complexity levels applying three threshold criteria and ensembling the resulting maps into one for the final result. We mapped suitable habitat predicted with high certainty and identified local districts where E. kebericho can be cultivated or introduced to enhance its conservation. We estimated that E.kebercho has about 137,925 km2 of suitable habitat, mainly concentrated in the western highlands of the Ethiopian mountains. Our models at both complexity levels had high average performances, AUC values of 0.925 for the complex model and 0.907 for the simpler model. Although E. kebericho is locally confined, our models predict that, it has a remarkably wider potential distribution area. We recommend introducing E. kebericho to these areas to improve its conservation status and tap its multiple benefits on a sustainable basis. Locally confined threatened plants and animals likely have wider potential distributions than their realized niche and thus similar methodology can be applied for their conservation.