Abstract
Background
Brucellosis is now a public health problem that cannot be ignored in China. However, a detailed study of its spatial distribution is still lacking. This paper aims to understand the spatial distribution of brucellosis in China and provide new research tools and bases for its prevention and treatment.
Methods
Data on the incidence rate of brucellosis from 2012 to 2018 was obtained from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System (CDCIS). ArcGIS 10.6 software was used to perform kriging interpolation analysis and create a distribution prediction map for brucellosis. Additionally, SaTScan software was utilized to conduct spatial-temporal scanning analysis in order to identify potential spatial changes in China's brucellosis incidence rate.
Results
There is a seasonal trend in the incidence of brucellosis in China, with a higher incidence in the warm season, especially the highest incidence in May. The results of exploratory analysis of kriging data show that the average incidence map, using the second-order Gaussian semi-variance model-log kriging interpolation method, has the highest accuracy. The results of spatial and temporal clustering show that there is a first-level clustering area centered on Heilongjiang and three second-level clustering areas centered on Tibet, Shanxi, and Hubei. The results of China's brucellosis predictive distribution map and the analysis of the scanning statistic show that the high incidence area of brucellosis is located in the northwest part of our country, but there is a tendency to shift to the south.
Conclusion
There are clear spatial patterns of brucellosis in China. In high-incidence areas, it is important to allocate additional prevention and control resources to effectively contain the spread of brucellosis epidemics. In low-incidence areas, it is crucial to promptly identify favorable factors that can help reduce the occurrence of brucellosis.