A new deep neural network for forecasting: Deep dendritic artificial neural network

Abstract

AbstractDeep artificial neural networks have become a good alternative to classical forecasting methods in solving forecasting problems. Popular deep neural networks classically use additive aggregation functions in their cell structures. It is available in the literature that the use of multiplicative aggregation functions in shallow artificial neural networks produces successful results for the forecasting problem. A type of high-order shallow artificial neural network that uses multiplicative aggregation functions is the dendritic neuron model artificial neural network, which has successful forecasting performance. The first contribution of this work is the transformation of the dendritic neuron model, which works with a single output in the literature, into a multi-output architecture. The second contribution is to propose a new dendritic cell based on the multi-output dendritic neuron model for use in deep artificial neural networks. The other most important contribution of the study is to propose a new deep artificial neural network, a deep dendritic artificial neural network, based on the dendritic cell. The training of the deep dendritic artificial neural network is carried out with the differential evolution algorithm. The forecasting performance of the deep dendritic artificial neural network is compared with basic classical forecasting methods and some recent shallow and deep artificial neural networks over stock market time series. As a result, it has been observed that deep dendritic artificial neural network produces very successful forecasting results for the forecasting problem.