Comparing long-term energy pathways in Vietnam: a cost-optimization approach with OSeMOSYS

Abstract

Abstract Vietnam is at a critical juncture in planning for its future energy mix due to its fast-growing economy and recent climate commitments. Focusing on Vietnam’s energy system, this study incorporates a cost-optimization tool to investigate the impact of different policy decisions, resulting in a series of six different energy scenarios. The six scenarios include: (i) Power Development Plan VII (revised); (ii) Power Development Plan VIII (draft); (iii) Renewable Energy Development Strategy; (iv) Renewables-Led Pathway; (v) Net Zero; and (vi) Clean Energy Transition. Based on these cases, main insights are highlighted, with the aim of providing key stakeholders in energy policy strong modelling analysis on potential and practical energy mix alternatives over the next 20–30 years. Thus, modelling suggests that a fossil fuel phase-out and uptake of renewable technologies will allow Vietnam to achieve its climate commitments, whilst providing energy security within the nation. Additionally, adopting sustainable biomass will support the transition to net zero, and energy-efficient technologies will lower costs and emissions. This study also concludes the key findings with recommendations on achieving the optimal pathway for the development of Vietnam’s energy sector.