Dynamic Analysis and Trend Forecast of China's Forestry Carbon Sink Benefits Based on Dual Carbon Targets

Abstract

AbstractThe efficient development of forestry is one of the most effective ways to deal with climate change and achieve carbon neutrality. This paper evaluates and analyzes the benefits of carbon sinks in 31 provinces of China and predicts their future development trends. Firstly, the forest volume expansion method was used to calculate the carbon sink volume and value of Chinese provinces from 2008 to 2018. In addition, the DEA model is used to dynamically analyze input-output efficiency at the provincial and national levels. Lastly, the GM (1, 1) prediction model was used to forecast the trend of China's forestry carbon sink input-output efficiency from 2019 to 2030. It is found that: (1) In terms of space, the benefits of China's forests as carbon sinks are "high in the north and south and low in the east and west," while in terms of time, the differences between regions are getting bigger. (2) Based on efficiency differences, provinces can be categorized into four gradients: high-efficiency, scale-effective, technologically effective, and low-efficiency. The forestry technology level and resource input scale in high-efficiency areas are relatively effective, whereas the indicators above in low-efficiency regions have a significant discrepancy with the optimal level. (3) Predictions indicate that between 2019 and 2030, the benefits of carbon sinks in forests will continue to decline. Based on the findings of this study and the current condition of input-output efficiency, specific recommendations for the long-term development of carbon sinks under the dual carbon objective are provided.