Assessment of Land Use /Land Cover Changes and its Future Predictions Using CA-Markov with ANN Simulation for Berhampore, West Bengal, India

Abstract

Abstract Land use and land cover (LULC) change is a multifaceted and dynamic process influenced by factors like population growth, economic development, and climate shifts. This study delves into the LULC changes spanning 1991 to 2021 in Berhampore, a district headquarters in Murshidabad, West Bengal, India. Notable findings include an expansion of built-up land from 5.25–9.30%, a reduction in agricultural land from 81.98–72.36%, and an increase in plantation or forest land from 8.45–13.23%. The change transition matrix highlights significant shifts, notably the transformation of agricultural land into built-up areas (15.92 km²) and conversion to plantation or forest land (25.96 km²) and water bodies (5.54 km²). A chord diagram visually represents the transition matrix's outcomes. Utilizing the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model, the study forecasts Berhampore's LULC for 2031. Forecasts indicate an ongoing increase in built-up land and a decrease in agricultural land. Concurrently, the area of plantation or forest land is projected to expand. Employing remote sensing and GIS techniques, the research tracks LULC changes and engages in a focus group discussion with local stakeholders. Findings underscore the intricate interplay between LULC, urbanization, and environmental dynamics. The study underscores the urgency of sustainable city planning, resource management, and community involvement to manage these transformations while preserving community well-being and ecological equilibrium. As cities expand and populations grow, this research highlights the imperative to balance development with environmental preservation for the greater benefit of society and nature.