Development and validation of a risk predictive model for cognitive frailty in elderly patients with chronic pain in the community: a cross-sectional study

Author:

Liu Yanping1,Tan Mingyang1,Xu Chaoqiang1,Li Hongyu1

Affiliation:

1. School of Nursing Jinzhou Medical University

Abstract

Abstract Background Chronic pain is a common health problem among older people in the community, due to chronic pain elderly are prone to physical frailty and cognitive decline, leading to reduced quality of life and increased mortality. Aim To understand the prevalence of cognitive frailty among elderly chronic pain patients in the community and identify risk factors for cognitive frailty, constructed a risk prediction model to draw nomogram and validated the model's effectiveness. Methods Conveniently selected 540 elderly patients with chronic pain in a community in Jinzhou City from January 2022 to July 2022 were randomly assigned to 70% development set (378 cases) and 30% validation set (162 cases). Using General information questionnaire, Numerical Rating Scale, Short-Form Mini-Nutritional Assessment, Athens Insomnia Scale, Self-rating depression Scale, Frail scale and Minimental State Examination for assessment, binary logistic regression analysis to determine risk factors, R software to establish a risk prediction model for cognitive frailty, and validation by ROC curve and calibration curve etc. Results The prevalence of cognitive frailty in elderly patients with chronic pain in the community was 28.04%, and binary logistic regression analysis showed that age, exercise habit, pain level, insomnia, malnutrition and depression were independent risk factors for cognitive frailty (P < 0.05), and nomogram was drawn based on the above risk factors. Hosmer-Lemeshow test, X2 = 1.951 (P = 0.377). The area under the ROC curve was 0.914 (95%CI: 0.883–0.944) in the development set and 0.940 (95%CI: 0.896–0.985) in the validation set. Conclusions The high prevalence of cognitive frailty in elderly patients with chronic pain in the community is influenced by age, exercise habit, pain level, insomnia, malnutrition and depression, had a predictive role to inform early screening and intervention.

Publisher

Research Square Platform LLC

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