The Brazil Nut Journey Under Future Climate Change in Amazon

Abstract

Abstract Climate change poses a significant threat to global terrestrial biodiversity, particularly in megadiverse ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest. This study focuses on the potential impact of climate change on a prominent forest species, Bertholletia excelsa (Brazil nut), which holds multiple dimensions of value in the Amazonian context. By employing an ensemble of distribution modeling methods, we examine four distinct climate scenarios projected for the end of the century. Our research incorporates explicit consideration of dispersal events to simulate the species' spatial dynamics. This approach enables us to predict attributes such as extinction, persistence, and colonization of Bertholletia in future timeframes, spaces, and climatic conditions. Our findings show that, regardless of the evaluated climate scenario, B. excelsa would experience a widespread loss of suitability by the end of the century, resulting in a substantial reduction (up to 94%) of area for the specie. Moreover, our results suggest that the specie would seek more favorable conditions by colonizing higher altitudes in the future. Encouragingly, we identify areas that may regain suitability by the end of the century, which could inform active restoration efforts to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change on the specie.