Predictors of time to death for children under-five in Mozambique: a survival model using Data from the 2011 and 2022/23 Demographic and Health Surveys

Author:

Xavier Sancho Pedro1,Victor Audêncio2,Gotine Ana Raquel Manuel2,Rondó Patricia Hellen2,Silva Ageo Mário Cândido da1

Affiliation:

1. Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul

2. Universidade de São Paulo

Abstract

Abstract

Background Under-five mortality (U5M) is a critical indicator for assessing the overall health status of a population. Mozambique faces challenges in this area, and understanding risk factors is essential for developing effective interventions. This study aimed to analyze the overall survival of U5M and its predictors in Mozambique. Methods The study used data from the Mozambique Demographic and Health Surveys (MDHS) of 2011 and 2022/23. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier models were applied to determine survival time and identify predictors of death. The Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was used to measure the association between the analyzed factors. Results In 2011, the U5M rate was 7.3%, and 3.5% within the first year of life. By 2022/23, these rates decreased to 4.8% and 4.0%, respectively. The median age at death was 29.5 months. A significant reduction in the risk of death was observed among female children and those whose mothers had secondary or higher education. Additionally, the risk was lower in children born as the second to fourth child, as well as those living in households with 5 or more members. Conversely, the risk of death was higher in children whose mothers were under 20 years old at first birth, with low birth weight, born very preterm, and those born at home, in the private sector, or other places. Conclusion The findings highlight the importance of promoting maternal education and improving health services in Mozambique to reduce U5M rates. Investing in maternal education and prenatal and obstetric care is crucial to enhancing child survival.

Publisher

Research Square Platform LLC

Reference51 articles.

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4. National, regional, and global levels and trends in neonatal mortality between 1990 and 2017, with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis;Hug L;Lancet Glob Heal,2019

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