Risk assessment of hazard factors on drowning incidents in Turkey

Abstract

Abstract Drowning, mainly originating from natural factors, is a significant source of hazards worldwide. In this study, the effects and risk assessment of natural and other hazard factors on unintentional drowning cases (UDI) between 2010 and 2020 in Turkey were investigated for the first time. An average of 935 UDIs recorded each year during the study period. 66.1% of UDIs resulted in a fatality, corresponding to a fatality rate of 0.79 per 100,000 population. The highest UDIs rate, with an average of 30.13 per 100,000 population, was recorded in Bartın province, located on the south coast of the Black Sea. The analysis and previous studies show that rip current is a lead cause of natural hazard in drowning incidents on the south coast of the Black Sea. Another significant natural factor in drowning incidents is temporal distribution by months and seasons. The study identified warm seasons as a risk-increasing factor because the number of UDIs was at record levels. According to the number of incidents, almost 80% of victims suffer from drowning during swimming and recreating activities in the surf zone and natural or artificial coastal structures. The study revealed that different natural factors of the incident location, such as meteorological, oceanographic, and surf zone characteristics of beaches, significantly affect the cause of drowning.