Affiliation:
1. Loughborough University
Abstract
Abstract
Since 2019 the U.K. Met Office has provided monthly observations, beginning in 1960, on the number of days in the month experiencing air frost for the U.K. and its regions. The multivariate regression model with common trends is found to provide an excellent representation of this data set. A variety of common trends are observed across the regions, the most notable of these being an ‘extended winter’ common trend for the months from November through to March. All regions have seen trend declines in frost days per winter month, these ranging from three to five days over the sample period, but the non-Scottish regions have experienced the largest percentage declines, ranging from 29% to 39%. These percentage declines have been smaller for the Scottish regions, ranging from 21% to 27%. The English regions and Northern Ireland have experienced no declines in trend frost days during spring and autumn, but the regions of Scotland have seen declines of between 18 and 23%.
Publisher
Research Square Platform LLC
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