Understanding future changes of landscape connectivity with changing vegetation cover based on land use projections and morphological spatial pattern analysis: the case of Inner Mongolia, China

Abstract

Abstract Context Comprehensive understanding of future landscape connectivity change fundamentally benefits both policy-making of land use and ecosystem conservation planning, but such understanding is rarely available at a local level. Here, we present the scenario projections of land use of a crucial ecological barrier, Inner Mongolia (IM) in China, under the interacted frameworks of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Objectives We aim to tackle existing issue of future landscape connectivity dynamics with delicate account. Methods We first projected a 1km gridded land use under SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP5-RCP8.5 covering 2030 and 2050. Probability Connectivity Index (PC) based on Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis were used to assess landscape connectivity. Aggregation Index (AI) and Shannon’s Diversity Index (SHDI) were used to evaluate landscape pattern and the core patch was identified as three importance levels using Patch Importance Index (dPC), which facilitates bivariate spatial autocorrelation between landscape pattern and dPC. Results The analysts of spatial-temporal landscape connectivity dynamics under two alternative scenarios demonstrate that (1) SSP585 obtains higher landscape connectivity due to larger vegetation coverage with a corresponding homogeneous landscape pattern. (2) Urban expansion is a decisive driver in damaging landscape connectivity. (3) Western region in IM had a worrying situation of landscape connectivity. (4) Higher fragmentation either from urbanization or vegetation occupation damages landscape connectivity. (5) SSP126 obtained higher aggregation effects between AI (or SHDI) and dPC. Conclusion Our results demonstrations call for land use policy interventions geared towards a greener future with high landscape connectivity by reducing cropland loss and grassland loss, preventing damages to landscape connectivity from extensive urban expansion. Especially for the western region, from the perspective of landscape pattern and vegetation distribution, long-term feasible land use spatial planning is formulated.