PM2.5 decadal changes in Brazil: influence of vehicular fleet growth and policy to control vehicular emissions
Author:
Ribeiro Camilo Bastos1, Hoinaski Leonardo1
Affiliation:
1. Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
Abstract
Abstract
Previous evidence suggests that Programs to Control Vehicular Emission (PCVE) restrictions have succeeded in improving air quality. However, it has not been assessed PCVE long-term effects under vehicular fleet growth scenarios in developing countries in the Southern Hemisphere. We analyzed the influence of vehicular fleet growth and restrictions of emission control policy on PM2.5 changes in all Brazilian urban spots. Our results show an increase in PM2.5 concentrations (up to 14%) aligned with an intensive increase (more than 70%) in the vehicular fleet between 2001 and 2010. We detected a similar pattern in more than 50% of urban spots in the South-East and other large urban centers in the South and Mid-West regions. The stabilization or reduction of PM2.5 is associated with a smoothing of fleet growth combined with the continuous restrictions of emission control policy between 2011 and 2020. This work highlights the importance of planning and limiting fleet growth beyond vehicular technological improvement and emission factor restrictions.
Publisher
Research Square Platform LLC
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