Business As Usual Versus Climate-responsive, Optimised Crop Plans – Irrigated Agriculture in Australia in 2060

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is impacting people's lives, with food security being a major concern for the future of many countries. In this paper, production capacity of current crops in a case study area in Australia is evaluated under future climatic condition. The predictive methods, on which this work is based, have the advantage of being robust---they able to simultaneously consider many climate change models---giving greater confidence in determining what the future will hold in this regard. The results indicate business as usual, in terms of the quantity and types of crops that can be grown presently, will not be sustainable in the medium and long term future. Instead, modelling indicates that changes in production and land use to maximise revenue per megalitre of water will be needed to deliver climate-smart agriculture.