MicSim, a microsimulation model for population dynamics

Abstract

Abstract Demographers use microsimulation for studying individual life courses and their attributes; events are specified to be the result of stochastic processes based on predetermined probabilistic rules. In this study, we developed and validated a microsimulation model to reconstruct individual’s life courses and their interactions in different regions of the European Union. One of the main objectives of this study was to track migrants’ pathways in the context of three population systems, namely Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain, from 2014 to 2018. We used official datasets as data inputs to analyze and project future population dynamics. A revised version of the MicSim package which is part of the statistical software R has been used to model mobility and migration patterns at large scale. For this purpose, among other things new functions were added to make the software more efficient concerning runtimes and data handling. By analyzing the modelling results we conclude that MicSim has the potential to be applied for modelling migration and also more general population movements at a large scale. The application of the MicSim package would provide policy makers with a valid instrument for the governance of migration accounting for the demographic and social patterns of migrants and their origin-destination contextual environments.