The impact of climate change on grain yield and biomass of winter wheat and sunflower in Northwest Turkey

Abstract

Abstract Prediction of crop yield and biomass in agricultural production is crucial for both food safety and national economic projections. This study aimed to determine the relationship between the effects of climate change and biomass and grain yield of two crops at two locations, Kirklareli (KRK), Edirne-Orhaniye (EOL), with different soil textures in the Thrace region of Turkey. The effects of climate change were analyzed by using sixty-five different climate scenarios (n = S1, S2, …, S65) for sunflower and winter wheat crops with the AquaCrop model. The model predicted the highest grain yield and biomass loss when the air temperature was increased by 5°C and the precipitation was decreased by 50% during the growing seasons of both crops. In the scenarios where only temperature was increased, yield and biomass values of sunflower was decreased, while those of winter wheat was increased. The combined effects of increased global solar radiation and decreased temperature had a negative effect on wheat production at EOL. For both sunflower and wheat, the most negative impacts on yield and biomass production were observed with the combined scenarios of various temperature increases and precipitation decreases during each growing season at each location. Finally, under the defined climate scenarios, the correlation coefficients between sunflower and winter wheat biomass and grain yields were found to be R2 = 0.88 and 0.87 for KRK and R2 = 0.56, and 0.79, for EOL, respectively.