Public Preferences for Policy Measures to Protect the Public against Infectious Diseases: A Conjoint Analysis

Abstract

Abstract Background The extent to which the public can tolerate the economic impact (i.e., impact on private income) of public health policies implemented to prevent pandemic situations like COVID-19 is an ongoing issue. This study aimed to examine the trade-off between personal income and infection control in Japan’s pandemic policy decisions. Methods A conjoint analysis was conducted with a public panel via an internet survey agency. Infected patients, deaths, and income change were chosen as analysis attributes. Each respondent chose their responses from four hypothetical scenarios using an online panel. A panel logit-model was applied to assess the public preference for an increase/decrease in income and the number of infectants/deaths. Results From 2,155 complete responses, 8,620 results were extracted and analyzed. Most of the respondents affirmed the tendency to accept a decrease in income to control infection. According to the simplest model, the coefficient for income increase was 0.544 (for JPY 1 million, 95%CI: 0.460–0.627) and that for the multiplier for infected individuals was − 0.346 (natural log scale, 95%CI: -0.391 – -0.301). A comparison of the magnitudes of the two attributes revealed that the public was 4.81 times (95%CI: 3.24 to 8.01) more likely to accept an increase in infections/deaths in exchange for an increase of JPY 1 million in their annual income. Those with an extreme fear toward the pandemic were more likely to avoid an increase in infectants, for which coefficient was − 0.444 (95%CI: -0.510 - -0.378) Conclusions This study revealed the Japanese public’s preferences for measures to prevent infections vis-à-vis changes in income. The research used a discrete choice experiment to examine the infectious disease pandemic policy in Japan combining strategies for protection measures supporting lowering the number of infected people and deaths as well as economic (unemployment) outcomes. The present findings can guide the vaccine policy and pandemic preparedness for prevention.