Predicting tomorrow’s biodiversity: what do we miss at local scale?

Abstract

Abstract Evidence for the need of shifting scales in biodiversity analyses under global change is mounting, raising the question of the variables operating at fine scales. We evaluated the extent to which community composition of one guild of land plants (bryophytes vs tracheophytes) can be predicted from abiotic variables, species composition and architecture of the other guild. Tracheophyte community composition, which integrates biotic and abiotic factors, was, by far, the best predictor of bryophyte community composition, suggesting that, even in an intensively studied natural laboratory such as the Western Swiss Alps, improved measurements and mapping of micro-environmental factors are urgently required.