Dynamic Simulation of Carbon Emission under Different Policy Scenarios in Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration, China

Abstract

Abstract Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration (PRDUA) is a key region in China's economic development and ecological civilization construction, and also an important global economic cluster area. The carbon emission (CE) prediction can provide a basis for local governments to formulate sustainable development policies. In order to make more accurate predictions of CE in the PRDUA, the STIRPAT model was employed to classify CE influencing factors into seven dimensions, on the basis of which a system dynamics model was constructed to analyze the multi-dimensional impact of CE. Then, 21 CE prediction scenarios were created at the city level based on the spatial heterogeneity analysis of the CE factors by Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR). The results showed that the PRDUA as a whole will reach carbon peak (CP) by 2025. Shenzhen, Zhuhai and Dongguan will reach CP before 2020, while other cities will reach CP by 2025–2030. The government policy constraints can effectively curb CE, but if government constraints were relaxed, CE will rise and individual cities will not reach CP. Comprehensive CE reduction policies are better than a single CE reduction policy. Finally, the study discussed the relationship between economic development and CE, and put forward some policy suggestions for CE reduction.