Analyzing Drought Trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan

Abstract

Abstract Located in the lowest part of the Indus Basin, Pakistan's Sindh Province has been severely affected by extreme events due to climate change. This study analyzes the drought characteristics in Sindh Province from 1902 to 2015 using 3-month and 12-month timescales of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The Spatial "K" luster Analysis using Tree Edge Removal (SKATER) method was used to divide the study area into four zones with similar climatic characteristics. Then, the run theory was applied to characterize droughts (drought duration, severity, intensity, and peak) in each zone. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test was also applied to analyze statistically significant trends by zone and drought characteristic. It was found that all four zones experienced a decrease in SPEI throughout the analyzed period. The effects of climate change are more evident when we analyzed drought characteristics in two time slices, i.e., pre and post-1960. The results showed that in the post-1960 time slice, droughts increased in duration, severity, intensity, and peaks over the entire study area under both 3 and 12-month SPEI. The findings of this study can assist policymakers and water managers in devising policies for managing limited water resources under changing patterns of droughts in Sindh Province.