Exploring EM-DAT for depicting spatiotemporal trends of drought and wildfires and their connections with anthropogenic pressure

Abstract

Abstract The relationship between drought and wildfire events and their impacts on society is of paramount importance, necessitating comprehensive studies to understand long-term trends. This manuscript utilizes the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) to gather data on drought and wildfire events, focusing on the number of affected people and human losses. The analysis covers the period from 1983 to 2022 and incorporates eco-hydro-socio-geographical variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), precipitation anomaly, population density, and forested area. The study reveals significant geographical disparities in the impacts of drought and wildfire. Asia stands out as the region most affected by these phenomena, with more than 72% of individuals experiencing their effects. In contrast, Europe and Oceania show negligible impacts, accounting for less than 1% collectively. When it comes to losses specifically caused by drought, Asia has the highest share at around 82%. Conversely, Oceanea has the lowest share, with less than 0.1% of total losses attributed to drought. In the case of wildfires, Africa takes the lead with 84% of total losses. On the other hand, Oceania, Europe, Asia, and America collectively contribute only 16% to the total losses, which is considerably lower. Temporal analysis indicates an increasing trend in the number of people affected by both drought and wildfire, particularly after the early 2000s, potentially attributed to climate change and improved reporting in EM-DAT. Correlation tests highlight the inverse relationship between GDP and the studied parameters, while precipitation anomaly exhibits an inverse correlation with wildfire-affected populations. Forested area significantly correlates with wildfire-related damages.