Abstract
Examining the presence of climate change through trend analysis of rainfall and temperature variables has gained recognition due to their significant implications. The pressing global issue of escalating temperatures coupled with unpredictable, diminishing rainfall is particularly critical, especially in regions heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture. This study focuses on the Malaprabha Canal Command Area (MRBC) and aims to assess dynamic changes in meteorological variables, offering valuable insights for effective adaptation strategies. The investigation spans a comprehensive analysis of long-term climatic data, specifically a 30-year period from 1991 to 2020. Rainfall trends across six stations within the entire Malaprabha right bank canal command area are explored on a monthly, seasonal, and annual basis. Additionally, the study scrutinizes maximum and minimum temperature trends from 2000 to 2019 at seven selected stations in and around MRBC. The analytical approach involves the application of the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates, maintaining a significance level of 5%. Results from the detailed trend analysis of MRBC indicate the absence of a significant trend at the 95% confidence level in the region. However, the study identifies both increasing and decreasing trends in annual rainfall at selected stations. Furthermore, no significant trend emerges in the temperature data for annual series throughout MRBC. Notably, a significant negative trend is observed during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon periods, while a significant positive trend is identified at the Ron station. These findings contribute valuable information for understanding the climatic dynamics in MRBC and serve as a basis for formulating informed strategies to address climate-induced challenges.