Estimating the transmission dynamics of Omicron in Beijing, November to December 2022-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Estimating the transmission dynamics of Omicron in Beijing, November to December 2022

Published:2022-12-20 Issue: Volume: Page:
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Author:

Leung Kathy¹^ORCID,Lau Eric H. Y.²,Wong Carlos King Ho²^ORCID,Leung Gabriel³^ORCID,Wu Joseph¹^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. The University of Hong Kong

2. University of Hong Kong

3. School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong

Abstract

Abstract We tracked the effective reproduction number Rt of Omicron BF.7 in Beijing in November – December 2022 by fitting a transmission dynamic model parameterized with real-time mobility data to (i) the daily number of new symptomatic cases on November 1–11 (when the zero-covid interventions were still strictly enforced) and (ii) the proportion of individuals who participated in online polls on December 10–14 and self-reported to have been previously test-positive. After the announcement of “20 measures”, we estimated that Rt increased to 3.42 (95% CrI: 2.79–4.17) on November 18. Infection incidence peaked on December 10, and the cumulative infection attack rate was 42.5% (95% CrI: 20.3–63.9) on December 14. Surveillance programmes should be rapidly set up to monitor the evolving epidemiology and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 across China.

Publisher

Research Square Platform LLC

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