Pathways to clean energy transition in Indonesia's electricity sector with OSeMOSYS modelling (Open-Source Energy Modelling System)

Abstract

Abstract Responding to the Paris agreement and climate change mitigation, Indonesia aims to reach Net Zero by 2060 or sooner. Due to Indonesia's dependence on coal and growing consumption, alternative sources of clean energy are imperative for meeting its rising energy needs and reducing energy-related greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the energy transition. This project aims to examine Indonesia's challenges, opportunities and potential to achieve low carbon ambition in the energy sector and identify alternative pathways for the energy transition in Indonesia. Cost-effective scenarios are developed by the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), providing comprehensive data analysis. OSeMOSYS is a least-cost model that enables long-term energy system modelling and its related intensive analysis. Indonesia energy data and OSeMOSYS input are obtained from an Indonesia starter data kit. In this study, a comparison of electricity generation, technology, investment, and carbon dioxide emissions is made between business-as-usual scenarios and model scenarios. The results show that NZ50 scenario is more cost-effective than others in meeting Indonesia's future energy demand at the lowest implementation cost. Although NZ50 and NZ60 are possible ways to reach carbon neutrality, NZ50 emits fewer CO2 emissions at a similar cost to NZ60. This paper's insights emphasise that large-scale renewable energy deployment and coal retirement are critical pathways to reaching carbon neutrality and achieving the energy mix transition.