Predictive Model Suggests Increase of Blue Streamer Discharges due to Climate Change

Abstract

Abstract Blue streamer discharges are corona flashes usually originating from the upper part of thunderclouds and are associated with more severe weather systems than lightning. When observed from space they present with strong 337.0 nm emissions and essentially no 777.4 nm component. We built a model based on measurements by the Atmosphere-Space Interactions Monitor (ASIM) on the International Space Station (ISS) which allows us to predict where these events occur with only ERA5 reanalysis data as inputs. Running the model for even years in the period 1980 to 2022 we show that the production of blue streamer discharges increases in a warming climate at a rate of \((7 \pm 2)% K^{-1}\). Changes in the geographical distribution of the events show that the increase is centered mainly in central Africa with smaller increases in Australia, eastern North America and eastern Europe.