Assessing the Performance of WRF-ELEC and Lightning Potential Index for Lightning Forecasting in Odisha, India: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:

Mahapatra Debasish1,Panda Subrat Kumar2,Banik Trisanu3,Banerjee Bijit Kumar4

Affiliation:

1. Ghent University

2. Central University of Rajasthan

3. India Meteorological Department (IMD)

4. Gauhati University

Abstract

Abstract

This study evaluates the WRF-ELEC model with the LPI (Lightning Potential Index) approach for lightning prediction in Odisha using data from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Lightning Location Network. It compares model outputs against observed data, focusing on capturing the spatial and temporal distribution of lightning occurrences. Specific cases from 15 June 2019, 24 June 2020, 27 July 2020, and 8 August 2021 were analysed. Results indicate WRF-ELEC's superior accuracy, with Aggregate Mismatch Count for FOD showing a maximum of 12 (mean 1.06) versus Lightning Density's 19 (mean 2.74). Percentage Mismatch for FOD was 50% (mean 4.42%) compared to Lightning Density's 79.17% (mean 11.48%). The Normalized Linear Intensity Mismatch for FOD had a maximum of 4.40 (mean 0.16), significantly lower than Lightning Density's 19.48 (mean 2.01). These findings highlight WRF-ELEC's strengths and weaknesses, contributing to enhanced operational lightning prediction and hazard mitigation strategies in severe weather-prone regions, aiming to improve preparedness in vulnerable areas.

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

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