Trends and influencing factors of ADRs associated with China’s national essential medicines: A time-series analysis based on data from the National ADR Monitoring Network

Abstract

Abstract Objective. To explore the drivers of the increase in adverse drug reactions (ADRs) associated with drugs in China's list of essential medicines and to analyse the ADR impact of the number of visits, based on the recorded annual increase in ADRs associated with essential medicines in China, to provide a reliable theoretical basis for further analysis and optimization of the safety of essential drugs. Methods. A time-series analysis was conducted based on the ADR data for essential medicines from 2011 to 2020 collected from the National ADR Monitoring Center. The relationship between the ADRs associated with essential medicines and the number of visits was explored by means of a vector autoregressive model, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis, variance analysis and other quantitative analysis methods. Results. There was a long-term cointegration relationship and one-way causality between the number of visits and ADRs caused by essential medicines. In the initial stage, the ADR response to the number of visits increased sharply, but with an increase in the number of lag periods, the impact remained basically stable, even showing a slight decreasing trend. Conclusion. The number of visits impacts ADRs caused by essential medicines, but this impact remains basically stable after reaching a certain level. In the long run, the impact may decrease.