Analysis of drought risks in arid regions using RS data and standardized precipitation index considering climate change

Abstract

Abstract Climate change could cause changes in temperature and precipitation patterns that may increase the probability of drought. Climate change could enormously affect arid regions, and many countries may suffer from drought. This study aims to monitor the historical drought in Syria. Monthly data were collected from 71 land stations for the period (1991-2009). After 2010, the field data were not available due to the civil war in Syria. The satellite images for monthly precipitation were collected for the period (1983-2020). RS and GIS were used to correct the satellite images using the land stations data for the period (1991-2009) and correction equation was developed for each station that was used to correct the data for the period (1983-2020). Drought risk analysis was carried out utilizing Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in the period (1983-2020). Three types of droughts have been detected; agricultural, hydrological and groundwater drought. The results showed that significant drought struck Syria and the highest drought events were recorded in 1989, 2013 and 2016. The results of SPI trend analysis showed decreasing trends at all the stations. This highlights the impact of climate change on Syria that may suffer from more droughts in the future which in turn affect the availability of water resources. The results of this research could help to manage water resources and adapt to climate change risks in Syria. The results approved that SPI is a useful tool to monitor drought that could help decision-makers for putting efficient plans for drought risk management.