Affiliation:
1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
2. University of Maryland
3. Xiamen Meteorological Bureau
4. University of Melbourne,
5. Shantou Meteorological Bureau
Abstract
Abstract
In this report, the development of a Dynamical Statistical Analog Ensemble Forecast model for landfalling typhoon disasters (LTDs) and some applications over coastal China are described. This model consists of the following four elements: i) obtaining the forecast track of a target landfalling typhoon, ii) constructing its generalized initial value (GIV), iii) identifying its analogs based on the GIV, and iv) assembling typhoon disasters of the analogs. Typhoon track, intensity, and landfall date are introduced in GIV at this early development stage. The pre-assessment results show that the mean threat scores of two important damage levels of LTDs reach 0.48 and 0.55, respectively. Of significance is that most of the damage occurs near the typhoon centers around the time of landfall. These results indicate the promising performance of the model in capturing the main damage characteristics of typhoon disasters, which would help coastal community mitigate damage from destructive typhoons.
Publisher
Research Square Platform LLC
Reference49 articles.
1. An overview on tropical cyclone research progress in China during the past ten years;Chen L;Chinese J. Atmos. Sci.,2001
2. Tropical cyclone damages in China 1983–2006;Zhang Q;Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc.,2009
3. Ren, F. M. et al. Tropical Cyclones Affecting China over the Last 60 Years. (China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 2011). (in Chinese)
4. Tropical cyclone damages in mainland China over 2005–2016: Losses analysis and implications;Wang H;Environ. Dev. Sustain.,2019
5. Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns;Marsooli R;Nat. Commun.,2019