Modeling the Future Distribution of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus in China: Implications of Climate Change

Abstract

Abstract Global climate dynamics are exerting an influence on the ecological and geographical distribution of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, the primary vectors of dengue fever. These environmental shifts may potentially alter the suitable habitats for both mosquito species, leading to a transformation in their distribution patterns. Although there is already a substantial body of research on the impact of environmental and climate change on these vectors, there is still room for improvement and further exploration in understanding their potential distribution patterns under current and future environmental conditions. To understand the distribution of suitable habitats for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in China under current and future climate scenarios, we used the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) model of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) based on observed occurrence records of these two mosquito species. This simulation predicted their distribution across mainland China for the present and future (2041–2100). The results indicate that the annual mean temperature (bio1), seasonality of temperature (bio4), and precipitation of the wettest quarter (bio16) are significant climate variables impacting the distribution of Ae. aegypti and A. albopictus. Under future climate scenarios, the original suitable habitats for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus will remain stable, while the extent of suitable habitats is expected to increase over time. The predicted suitable habitats for Ae. aegypti are expected to expand in Guangxi and Guangdong. Under the ssp585 scenario for the years 2081–2100, new suitable habitats might emerge in the southern parts of regions such as Sichuan, Guizhou, Jiangxi, and Fujian. Ae. albopictus is predicted to expand its habitat, with Yunnan, Guangdong, and Guangxi gradually becoming its most suitable habitats. The northernmost extension is predicted to reach small suitable areas such as the southern part of Qiqihar and the western part of Daqing in Heilongjiang province. However, this expansion is hardly reflected along the western and northern borders of China and is primarily within its current range.