COVID- 19 Screening by RT-PCR: An Epidemiological Modelling

Abstract

Abstract Background: Given the attention on COVID-19 testing and its role in helping to halt the spread of COVID-19 Pandemic, wider testing is urgently needed for successful pandemic control. The level of the test’s performance is also important for effective management of the different stages of the pandemic.Objectives: To study the impact of RT-PCR testing in control of COVID-19 Pandemic and validity of RT-PCR as a predictor for COVID- 19 diseaseMethods: The data was collected essentially by using secondary data. All cases and deaths in WHO Situation Reports and total tests in Worldometer were included in the study. Wolfram Player 12 software was used for the Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) epidemic dynamics of COVID-19. Survival analysis was carried out to determine the cumulative proportional survival of COVID-19 in Egypt. Six studies discussing the validity of RT-PCR was also reanalyzed. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to study the diagnostic performance of RT-PCR.Results: There was a negative correlation between both case fatality rate of COVID-19 and reproductive rate with RT-PCR tests performed . This difference is significant (r = - 0.307 and. – 0.361) respectively. RT-PCR had a sensitivity of 61.19%, Specificity 94.75%% and an accuracy of 76.72%. The area under the ROC (AUC) for RT-PCR was 0.780.Conclusion and recommendation: RT-PCR testing will continue to be needed. It reduced the case fatality and reproduction rates of COVID-19 Pandemic. The AUC for RT-PCR is less than optimal. The combination of clinical symptoms, exposure history and CT must be considered to identify COVID-19 with higher sensitivity.