The Current and Future Potential Distribution Areas of the Invasive Oak Leaf Defoliator Oak lace bug [Corythucha arcuata (Say, 1832)] (Heteroptera: Tingidae) on Oak Forests of Türkiye

Abstract

Abstract The study aims to model the current and future (2041–2060 and 2081–2100) potential distribution areas of Oak lace bug [Corythucha arcuata) according to SSP2 and SSP5 emission scenarios of the HadGEM3-GC31-LL model. Pearson Correlation Analysis performed to select the bioclimatic data to be run in the model and it was decided to use 7 variables to determine the potential distribution areas of Corythucha arcuata. These variables are Annual Mean Temperature, Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter, Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter for temperature data and Annual Precipitation, Precipitation Seasonality and Precipitation of Driest Quarter for precipitation data.The current potential distribution area model of Corythucha arcuata created in MaxEnt shows that it is concentrated in the Marmara and Black Sea regions. According to the HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate change model SSP2-4.5 scenario, there will be a general narrowing in the distribution area within the 2040–2060 (~ 2050) period, there will be suitable and very suitable areas locally in some regions of Marmara and along the Black Sea coastline, and in the interior. So, state forestry authorities should take precautions for this pest in oak stands in northern Türkiye in the future.