Climate change, the Arab Spring, and COVID-19 impacts on landcover transformations in the Levant

Abstract

Abstract The Levant is a climatically sensitive region that suffers from prolonged heat waves contributing to societal crisis and massive population displacements1–3. At least since 2010 and the so-called Arab Spring, the region has experienced recurring socio-political turmoil and the Syrian civil war, which amplified the economic and ecologic pressure on the neighbouring countries4. Particularly in Jordan, the strong population growth in addition to the immigration of hundreds of thousands Syrian refugees has led to massive changes in land-use and built-up infrastructure, resulting in an over-exploitation of the landscape through irrigated crop plantations and unregulated construction activities5. Climate change and water shortages are now threatening food and water security6. A multicomponent trend analysis from climate variables, satellite imagery, and landcover datasets shows the strong increase in building activity over the past decades and emphasizes the interconnection of climate change prediction models and current socio-political development in the Levant. Groundwater exploitation for crop production in arid regions will further enhance the pressure on the local ecological functionalities and risks severe and irreversible land degradation.