Charting Coexistence: Patterns and Predictors of Human-Elephant Conflict in Tamil Nadu, India

Abstract

Abstract The relentless exploitation of natural resources and encroachment leads to conservation challenges such as human-elephant conflicts (HEC). Managing HEC requires a multifaceted approach encompassing habitat management, community engagement, and mitigation strategies. To address this concern, we undertook an extensive study spanning forest divisions of Tamil Nadu to gain insights into the patterns and predictors of HEC. We collected data from secondary resources and field surveys for five years (2016-21). Our analysis encompassed a division-wise, crop-wise, and conflict-wise assessment, temporal analysis and conflict risk modelling. We observed that certain divisions, notably the Hosur Division and particular forest ranges, especially the Denkankottai range, exhibited a higher frequency of conflicts. Furthermore, conflicts were most pronounced during December. Our investigation also identified the primary crops susceptible to elephant damage, with raagi being the most affected, particularly during December. The model predicted medium and high conflict risk areas as 14806 km2 and 2140 km2, respectively. The annual mean atmospheric temperature was the most significant variable in predicting conflict risk, followed by the Human Modification Index and Digital Elevation Model. Areas with higher conflict risk were closer to forest cover, croplands, roads, and water bodies. These regions typically had lower terrain ruggedness, higher human modification, lower temperatures, and taller vegetation. Thus, this study serves as a cornerstone for comprehending HEC patterns in Tamil Nadu. It provides valuable insights to develop a better and more efficient management plan to mitigate HEC and foster coexistence between humans and elephants in the region.