Future Health Spending Forecast in Leading Emerging BRICS Markets in 2030 - Health Policy Implications

Abstract

Abstract Introduction: BRICS leading Emerging Markets are increasingly shaping the landscape of global health sector demand and supply for medical goods and services. BRICS’ share of global health spending and future projections will play a prominent role during upcoming 2020s. The purpose of current research was to examine decades long, underlying historical trends in BRICS’ nations health spending and explore these data as the grounds for reliable forecasting of their health expenditures up to 2030.Methods: BRICS’ health spending data spanning 1995 - 2017 were extracted from IHME’s Financing Global Health 2019 database. Total health expenditure, government, prepaid private and out-of-pocket spending per capita and GDP share of total health spending, were forecasted 2018 - 2030. The ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models were used to obtain future projection based on time series analysis.Results: Per capita health spending in 2030 is projected to be: Brazil: $1767 (95% PI: 1615, 1977) ; Russia: $1933 (95% PI: 1549, 2317); India: $468 (95% PI: 400.4, 535) ; China: $1707 (95% PI: 1079, 2334); South Africa $1379 (95% PI: 755, 2004). Health spending %GDP shares in 2030 are projected to be: Brazil: 8.4% (95% PI: 7.5, 9.4) ; Russia: 5.2% (95% PI: 4.5, 5.9) ; India: 3.5% (95% PI: 2.9%,4.1%) ; China: 5.9% (95% PI: 4.9, 7.0) ; South Africa: 10.4% (95% PI: 5.5, 15.3).Conclusions: All BRICS expose long term trend to increase their per capita spending in PPP (purchase power parity) terms. India and Russia are highly likely to maintain stable total health spending GDP% share until 2030. China, as the major driver of global economic growth will be capable of significantly expanding its investment into the health sector across an array of indicators. Brazil is the only large nation whose GDP% share of health expenditure is about to contract substantially during the third decade of the 21st century. The steepest curve of increase in per capita spending until 2030 seems to be attributable to India while Russia should achieve the highest values in absolute terms. Health policy implications of long term trends in health spending indicate the need for Health Technology Assessment dissemination among BRICS ministries of health and national health insurance funds. Matters of cost-effective allocation of limited resources shall remain the core challenge in 2030 as well.