System Dynamics Modeling to Compensate Co 2 Emissions in Road and Road-rail Transport Models in the Atlantic Forest Biome

Abstract

Abstract The objective of this study was to determine between the purchase of carbon credits and the activity of forest restoration in the Atlantic Forest which investment in CO2 emissions compensation is more attractive from an economic point of view and also to determine between the road and intermodal modes (road + rail) the most attractive option from an environmental point of view. To this end, a System Dynamics model was developed capable of converting CO2 emissions in restored forest areas in the Atlantic Forest biome and/or carbon credits from REDD + projects and estimating the costs associated with these offsets. The model was fed with data related to cargo transport in two modes: road and rail. For each modal, four different scenarios were developed for the offsetting of emissions: only forest plantation; only purchase of carbon credits; 50% forestry planting and 50% purchase of carbon credits; and 30% forestry planting and 30% purchase of carbon credits. The results indicate that the most attractive option from an economic point of view is the compensation of emissions through forestry planting and that the most attractive option from an environmental point of view is the use of the road-rail modal.