Triglyceride-glucose index predicts new-onset chronic kidney disease: a 13-year prospective cohort study

Abstract

Background and purpose The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index serves as a convenient surrogate marker for insulin resistance in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). It is unknown whether TyG index may potentially predict CKD in the general population. Therefore, in the current study, we aimed to characterize the role of TyG index in prediction of new-onset CKD in a large community-based prospective cohort study. Methods/patients The study encompassed a total of 85,569 individuals from the Kailuan study who free of CKD. A total of 85,569 individuals were categorized into quartiles according to TyG index. The association between TyG index and the risk of CKD were analyzed by multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models and restricted cubic spline analysis. Results During a median follow-up period of 13.9 years (interquartile range: 13.55-14.17 years), a total of 7856 (4.05%) incident CKD were recorded. The incidence rate of new-onset CKD increased substantially with the quartiles of TyG index. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses showed that a higher TyG index quartile was associated with an elevated risk of new-onset CKD. In addition, subgroup analysis showed that a high TyG index was significantly associated with the risk of CKD in female, lower BMI (＜28), diabetes patients and smokers. Restricted cubic spline analysis showed a linear association between the baseline TyG index and the risk of new-onset CKD. Conclusions a high TyG index is significantly associated with an increased incidence of new-onset CKD in the general population of North China. Monitoring longitudinal trends in TyG index could assist prediction of incident CKD.