A trend analysis of tuberculosis mortality among rural people in China from 2006 to 2020: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

Abstract

Abstract Objective To investigate the mortality trends of tuberculosis among rural people in China from 2006 to 2020, and to provide a basis for formulating scientific tuberculosis prevention and control strategies. Methods According to the data of Chinese Disease Surveillance Points, taking rural people aged 5 ~ 84 years in China from 2006 to 2020 as the research subjects, the Joinpoint regression model was used to explore the overall trend of tuberculosis mortality, and the age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the age effect, period effect and birth cohort effect. Results From 2006 to 2020, the standardized mortality rate of tuberculosis among rural people in China showed a downward trend. The age effect of tuberculosis deaths in the population was on the rise, with the age of men aged 35 ~ 84 and women aged 60 ~ 84 as risk factors; The period effect showed a downward trend, the rate of decline gradually slowed down, and the risk of death in males increased from 2016 to 2020; The birth cohort effect generally declined, and birth cohorts turned into protective factors after 1969 ~ 1973. Males had an increased risk of death in the birth cohorts 1964 ~ 1968, 1984 ~ 1988, 1994 ~ 1998, and 2004 ~ 2008. Females also had an increased risk of death in the birth cohort 1989 ~ 2003. Conclusions Rural males aged 35 ~ 84 years old and females aged 60 ~ 84 years old had a higher risk of tuberculosis death. The risk of TB death for rural people decreased overall over time, with the risk of TB death increasing for rural males from 2016 to 2020. In general, the risk of TB death is lower in late birth cohorts, However, it is alarming that the risk of TB death increased in some birth cohorts in recent years, both males and females.