Tourism, economy, and carbon emissions in emerging South Asian economies: A dynamic causal analysis

Abstract

This study analyzes the dynamic relationships between tourism, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, exports, imports, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in five South Asian countries. A VAR-based Granger causality test is performed with time series data from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. According to the results, both bidirectional and unidirectional relationships among tourism, economic growth, and carbon emissions are investigated. Specifically, tourism significantly impacts GDP per capita in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, yet it has no effect in Bangladesh or India. However, the GDP per capita shows a unidirectional relationship with tourism in Bangladesh and India. The unidirectional causal relationship from exports and imports to tourism in the context of India and a bidirectional relationship in the case of Nepal. In Pakistan, it is observed that exports have a one-way influence on tourism. The result of the panel Granger test shows a significant causal association between tourism, economic growth, and trade (import and export) in five South Asian economies. Particularly, there is a bidirectional causal relationship between GDP per capita and tourism, and a significant unidirectional causal relationship from CO2 emissions, exports, and imports to tourism is explored. The findings of this study are helpful for tourism stakeholders and policymakers in the region to formulate more sustainable and effective tourism strategies.