Abstract
The IHME Covid-19 prediction model has been one of the most influential Covid models in the United States. Early on, it received heavy criticism for understating the extent of the epidemic. I argue that this criticism was based on a misunderstanding of the model. The model was best interpreted not as attempting to forecast the actual course of the epidemic. Rather, it was attempting to make a conditional projection: telling us how the epidemic would unfold, given certain assumptions. This misunderstanding of the IHME’s model prevented the public from seeing how dire the model’s projections actually were.
Publisher
University Library System, University of Pittsburgh
Cited by
2 articles.
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1. Managing Performative Models;Philosophy of the Social Sciences;2023-05-25
2. Purposes and duties in scientific modelling;Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health;2022-01-13