Analysis on energy consumption cost of Chinese road transportation (physical quantity)

Abstract

Chinese economy entered New Normal development stage in 2014. The stock and increment of traffic infrastructure and transport equipment will be maintain at a large scale. The continuous increase in the demand of transportation has brought about the increase of transportation energy consumption and pollution emission. In this paper, we focus on road transportation energy consumption. Firstly, analyze the core influence factors of road transportation energy consumption, and establish a road transportation energy consumption BVAR model. Secondly, introduce the loss function when establishing BVAR model in order to explain the asymmetric effect. Therefore, combine the merits of the loss function and BVAR model, and compare difference in loss when the regression coefficient is too high or too low under normal-Wishart prior distribution. The results show that the response of road transportation energy consumption to total turnover volume (i.e. ZZ) and mileage (i.e. LC) are observably, the mileage is a caused demand. Contribution rate of road transportation energy consumption itself is the largest, about 93%, and it has stock (up-tail) effect. Contribution rate of total turnover volume and mileage to road transportation energy consumption keep at about 6% and 1% respectively. There is asymmetric effect between road transportation energy consumption and its influence factors, Value a will affect the estimated result. The deviation of estimated values when a > 0 are large than the estimated values when a < 0.