Predicting China’s elderly population using a fractional gray prediction model

Abstract

China's aging population is becoming more and more serious, which has a far-reaching influence on the state and society. As the more elderly population grows, it is necessary to strengthen a sound policy system to alleviate the burden on families and society. The importance of accurately predicting the elderly population is therefore highlighted. With the aim of exploring the future development trend of China's older population, in this paper, we establish a new fractional gray prediction model based on time power term to study China's elderly population. We used data from 2010 to 2019 to assess modeling accuracy, demonstrating that the model outperforms the other models. The final step is to use the model to forecast China's elderly population from 2020 to 2029.