Recent and future air temperature and precipitation changes in the mountainous north of Montenegro

Abstract

The aim of the research of this paper is changes in air temperature and precipitation in the north of Montenegro in the instrumental period (1951-2018) and projections up to 2100. Kolasin was chosen because the altitude of the place is the average height of the northern region of Montenegro (about 1000 m), the meteorological station has not changed its location since the beginning of instrumental measurements, and homogeneity was tested (for the instrumental period). In general, the climate of Kolasin (1951-2018) has become warmer and with more frequent extreme daily temperatures and precipitations in an upward trend. When it comes to the projections for the north of this Mediterranean country, according to the A1B scenario of the Regional Climate Model EBU?POM, the results indicate warmer conditions and very warm ones at the end of the 21st century. The projected reduction of the annual number of almost all the considered rainfall days also implies that a slightly more arid future is expected. The climate of the mountainous north of Montenegro is changing, and the results presented in this paper may serve decision makers to take some measures of adaptation (in tourism, agriculture, architecture, water management, etc.) and climate change mitigation.