Forecasting analysis of selected health and economy related indicators in South Eastern European and Balkan countries

Abstract

Background/Aim. Health indicators provide comparable information relevant for defining the health goals. The aim of this article is to perform forecasting analysis of the selected indicators which could help anticipating the future necessities in health economy and preventing the problems which would predictively grow in the future. Methods. Health indicators are collected from publicly available databases of the World Health Organization and EuroStat. We used quantitative forecasting technique which is commonly used for historical data, for predicting several years in the future concerning selected health and economy related indicators. Results. Total health expenditures as a percentage of Gross domestic product (GDP) by 2025 will increase in the most of 17 surveyed countries. Percentage of household payments from the pocket will decrease in half of the surveyed countries, while values of GDP expressed in US$ will increase significantly compared to the last surveyed year (2017), except in Greece. Infant mortality indicator shows that the numbers will decrease in each surveyed country, while urban population percentage will rise almost in each country, except in Estonia. Life expectancy will increase in each surveyed country. Conclusion. Health- and economy-related indicators must be monitored over time, as they provide significant information concerning the relevant issues in health care system. Moreover, they may indicate changes that should be made in order to accomplish progress in each individual country.