Neural networks in analysing 137Cs behaviour in the air in the Belgrade area

Abstract

The application of the principal component analysis and artificial neural network method in forecasting 137Cs behaviour in the air as the function of meteorological parameters is presented. The model was optimized and tested using 137Cs specific activities obtained by standard gamma-ray spectrometric analysis of air samples collected in Belgrade (Serbia) during 2009-2011 and meteorological data for the same period. Low correlation (r = 0.20) between experimental values of 137Cs specific activities and those predicted by artificial neural network was obtained. This suggests that artificial neural network in the case of prediction of 137Cs specific activity, using temperature, insolation, and global Sun warming does not perform well, which can be explained by the relative independence of 137Cs specific activity of particular meteorological parameters and not by the ineffectiveness of artificial neural network in relating these parameters in general.